我的文档采用两列布局，每页 49 行，章节开头页除外，只有该页应该有 52 行（其余页面每页有 49 行）。
当我尝试\enlargethispage{52}定义\@chapter时，它只增加了第一列的文本高度，但第二列仍然只有 49 行。我需要两列都有 52 行，无需手动干预，仅在打开页面上。
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\begin{document}
\chapter{chapter title turn into multiple lines, and the real exchange rate remains
constant}
It has been four decades since Thirlwall published
his seminal paper challenging the orthodox growth
theory that argues for endowments and technology
as the main determinants of international growth
rate differences. In particular, Thirlwall (1979)
departed from the neoclassical approach and developed
a demand side model in which countries grow
at rates that are consistent with their balance of
payments equilibrium, unless {they can finance}
their deficits continuously.
{\bfseries Thirlwall's} {\itshape law}, \textsc{often} {\scshape referred} to as the dynamic
Harrod trade multiplier, states that long-run
growth of a country can be approximated by the
ratio of the growth of exports to the income elasticity
of demand for imports if the balance of payments
equilibrium on the current account is
a requirement, and the real exchange rate remains
constant. However, a country that continuously
runs trade deficits must reverse its balance of payments
in the long run. Otherwise, it would run out
of foreign exchange, resulting in a financial crisis.
The only way for such a country to reduce the
deficits is to slowdown output growth, which is
the balance of payments constraint. As a result,
the country would grow at a rate below the maximum
growth permitted by its supply side factors.
Most of the empirical studies following Thirlwall
(1979) on different countries confirm the validity of
the balance of payments constraint on economic
growth. Alonso (1999) tests the Spanish case
between 1960 and 1994, confirming that Spain is
constrained by the balance of payments. Hussain
(1999) investigates the validity of Thirlwall's law in
29 African countries and 11 East Asian Economies,
and the balance of payments constrained growth
model performs well. When tests for individual
countries are conducted, the actual growth rates
of 29 countries are not statistically different from
the balance of payments constrained growth rates
(see Thirlwall 2011, for an extensive review of
studies for individual and groups of countries).
Of all the countries tested empirically, the UK is
unique regarding its balance of payments position.
In almost all cases, the countries could be divided
either as balance of payments constrained or not,
while the UK cannot be classified as such.
McCombie (1997) argues that the UK was severely
balance of payments constrained only prior to
1974. Although the economic growth after 1974
was still not strong, the hypothesis that a balance
of payments constraint existed is rejected, suggesting
a systematic break. McCombie claimed that the
high-volume production of North Sea Oil helped
the UK to relieve its balance of payments constraint
in the 1980s (more detail is discussed in McCombie
and Thirlwall 1994, where a negative correlation
between unemployment and current account balance
is shown, with a break around 1974).
As seen in Figure 1, the UK became a net oil
exporter after the 1980s. However, the UK became
a net oil importer once more in the new millennium.
Consequently, the trade balance may have deteriorated
and growth be constrained again. Our objective
is to test whether the UK has been constrained by its
balance of payments during 1950-2017, while allowing
for additional structural breaks. Furthermore,
McCombie (1997) used regressions in log first differences
to estimate elasticities, and this may have
resulted in a loss of long-run information in the
data. In this paper, we estimate the income elasticity
of imports using both Johansen Cointegration and
Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) approaches,
which should produce more precise results. We also
use a new test based on a 2SLS estimation procedure,
in addition to the two standard tests suggested in the
literature, to test whether the UK is constrained by its
balance of payments and to confirm the robustness of
our results.
The rest of the paper is as follows: In Section 2,
we discuss Thirlwall's model and some of its relevant
extensions. In Section 3, we go over different
approaches to estimate the elasticity of demand for
imports and test the constraint. In Section 4, we
present our methodology followed by Section 5,
where we discuss the empirical results. We finalize
our paper in Section 6 with our concluding
remarks.
The pioneering work on the balance of payments
constrained growth model was by Thirlwall (1979).
In this section, we will discuss the original model
developed by Thirlwall and some of its seminal and
more recent extensions.
The starting premise of the model is that no country
can grow faster than the rate consistent with the
balance of payments equilibrium on its current
account, unless it can continuously finance its deficit.
Since this is not sustainable, the balance of
payments will need to be corrected, and as
a result, economic growth will be constrained in
the long run.
To model growth under this constraint,
Thirlwall (1979) imposes the balance of payments
equilibrium condition on the current account,
incorporates export and import demand functions
and solves for the growth rate consistent with the
long-run balance of payments equilibrium, since
import growth is a function of domestic income
growth.
As seen in Figure 1, the UK became a net oil
exporter after the 1980s. However, the UK became
a net oil importer once more in the new millennium.
Consequently, the trade balance may have deteriorated
and growth be constrained again. Our objective
is to test whether the UK has been constrained by its
balance of payments during 1950-2017, while allowing
for additional structural breaks. Furthermore,
McCombie (1997) used regressions in log first differences
to estimate elasticities, and this may have
resulted in a loss of long-run information in the
data. In this paper, we estimate the income elasticity
of imports using both Johansen Cointegration and
Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) approaches,
which should produce more precise results. We also
use a new test based on a 2SLS estimation procedure,
in addition to the two standard tests suggested in the
literature, to test whether the UK is constrained by its
balance of payments and to confirm the robustness of
our results.
The rest of the paper is as follows: In Section 2,
we discuss Thirlwall's model and some of its relevant
extensions. In Section 3, we go over different
approaches to estimate the elasticity of demand for
imports and test the constraint. In Section 4, we
present our methodology followed by Section 5,
where we discuss the empirical results. We finalize
our paper in Section 6 with our concluding
remarks.
The pioneering work on the balance of payments
constrained growth model was by Thirlwall (1979).
In this section, we will discuss the original model
developed by Thirlwall and some of its seminal and
more recent extensions.
The starting premise of the model is that no country
can grow faster than the rate consistent with the
balance of payments equilibrium on its current
account, unless it can continuously finance its deficit.
Since this is not sustainable, the balance of
payments will need to be corrected, and as
a result, economic growth will be constrained in
the long run.
To model growth under this constraint,
Thirlwall (1979) imposes the balance of payments
equilibrium condition on the current account,
incorporates export and import demand functions
and solves for the growth rate consistent with the
long-run balance of payments equilibrium, since
import growth is a function of domestic income
growth.
As seen in Figure 1, the UK became a net oil
exporter after the 1980s. However, the UK became
a net oil importer once more in the new millennium.
Consequently, the trade balance may have deteriorated
and growth be constrained again. Our objective
is to test whether the UK has been constrained by its
balance of payments during 1950-2017, while allowing
for additional structural breaks. Furthermore,
McCombie (1997) used regressions in log first differences
to estimate elasticities, and this may have
resulted in a loss of long-run information in the
data. In this paper, we estimate the income elasticity
of imports using both Johansen Cointegration and
Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) approaches,
which should produce more precise results. We also
use a new test based on a 2SLS estimation procedure,
in addition to the two standard tests suggested in the
literature, to test whether the UK is constrained by its
balance of payments and to confirm the robustness of
our results.
The rest of the paper is as follows: In Section 2,
we discuss Thirlwall's model and some of its relevant
extensions. In Section 3, we go over different
approaches to estimate the elasticity of demand for
imports and test the constraint. In Section 4, we
present our methodology followed by Section 5,
where we discuss the empirical results. We finalize
our paper in Section 6 with our concluding
remarks.
The pioneering work on the balance of payments
constrained growth model was by Thirlwall (1979).
In this section, we will discuss the original model
developed by Thirlwall and some of its seminal and
more recent extensions.
The starting premise of the model is that no country
can grow faster than the rate consistent with the
balance of payments equilibrium on its current
account, unless it can continuously finance its deficit.
Since this is not sustainable, the balance of
payments will need to be corrected, and as
a result, economic growth will be constrained in
the long run.
To model growth under this constraint,
Thirlwall (1979) imposes the balance of payments
equilibrium condition on the current account,
incorporates export and import demand functions
and solves for the growth rate consistent with the
long-run balance of payments equilibrium, since
import growth is a function of domestic income
growth.
As seen in Figure 1, the UK became a net oil
exporter after the 1980s. However, the UK became
a net oil importer once more in the new millennium.
Consequently, the trade balance may have deteriorated
and growth be constrained again. Our objective
is to test whether the UK has been constrained by its
balance of payments during 1950-2017, while allowing
for additional structural breaks. Furthermore,
McCombie (1997) used regressions in log first differences
to estimate elasticities, and this may have
resulted in a loss of long-run information in the
data. In this paper, we estimate the income elasticity
of imports using both Johansen Cointegration and
Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) approaches,
which should produce more precise results. We also
use a new test based on a 2SLS estimation procedure,
in addition to the two standard tests suggested in the
literature, to test whether the UK is constrained by its
balance of payments and to confirm the robustness of
our results.
The rest of the paper is as follows: In Section 2,
we discuss Thirlwall's model and some of its relevant
extensions. In Section 3, we go over different
approaches to estimate the elasticity of demand for
imports and test the constraint. In Section 4, we
present our methodology followed by Section 5,
where we discuss the empirical results. We finalize
our paper in Section 6 with our concluding
remarks.
The pioneering work on the balance of payments
constrained growth model was by Thirlwall (1979).
In this section, we will discuss the original model
developed by Thirlwall and some of its seminal and
more recent extensions.
The starting premise of the model is that no country
can grow faster than the rate consistent with the
balance of payments equilibrium on its current
account, unless it can continuously finance its deficit.
Since this is not sustainable, the balance of
payments will need to be corrected, and as
a result, economic growth will be constrained in
the long run.
To model growth under this constraint,
Thirlwall (1979) imposes the balance of payments
equilibrium condition on the current account,
incorporates export and import demand functions
and solves for the growth rate consistent with the
long-run balance of payments equilibrium, since
import growth is a function of domestic income
growth.
\end{document}